Summary of the November 1997 Revisions to the Stock-Watson Experimental
Indexes
The Stock-Watson Experimental Coincident, Leading and Recession Indexes
were revised beginning with the release for September 1997 (first available
in November 1997). The revision reflected three changes in the original
model described in Stock and Watson (1989):
-
Data -- The Public-Private Interest Rate Spread is now computed
as the difference between the interest rates on 3-month commercial paper
(financial) and 3-month U.S. Treasury bills. All other data series have
been updated to reflect new benchmarking, etc.
-
Parameter Estimates -- All of the parameters in the model were re-estimated
using data over the 1959:2-1997:5 sample period.
-
Trend Function in the XLI/XRI model -- A stochastic trend was added
to the XLI/XRI model. The trend, modeled as a random walk, was added as
a time-varying intercept in the equation relating the coincident index
to lagged values of the leading indicators. This component affects the
XLI and XRI, but does not affect the XCI.